Decision Making and Analysis

Data-driven decision analysis for weather observation technology in Japan: Integrating patent forecasting, network analytics, and economic valuation

Yong-Jae Lee — 2025-10-30

Accurate weather observation is paramount for mitigating the severe impacts of natural disasters, particularly in geographically vulnerable countries like Japan. This study provides a data-driven analysis of recent patent trends in Japanese weather observation technology to identify high-potential areas for future investment. Given Japan's susceptibility to extreme weather, enhancing forecast accuracy is crucial for economic and social resilience. We analyzed 93 patents published from 2019 to 2023 using an integrated methodology that combines patent mining, ARIMA-based time series forecasting, and Social Network Analysis (SNA). This approach enables us to identify key technologies, forecast their growth trajectories, and map their structural importance within the innovation ecosystem. Our analysis reveals that "control" technology is the leading field for future development, characterized by a rapidly growing ("Hot") trend and high structural centrality in the technology network. To validate its commercial relevance, we conducted an economic valuation using the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) and the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI). The results demonstrate a quantifiable positive return on investment for developing advanced control systems, confirming their economic viability. This research offers a robust, multi-faceted framework for strategic decision-making, providing actionable insights for stakeholders by directly linking technological forecasting to economic valuation.

Optimization of collaborative decision-making during the aircraft pre-flight maintenance

Tetiana Shmelova — 2025-09-28

Collaborative decision-making (CDM) protocols improve the efficiency of the air transportation system by uniting the objectives of aircraft and airport operators, air traffic control authorities, maintenance providers, and ground handling personnel. CDM can minimize delays, increase operational reliability, and ensure efficient use of infrastructure. Despite the maturity of CDM, the level of collaboration among aviation professionals in team settings remains inadequate to make well-informed joint decisions. This study analyzed the CDM activities of specialists in aircraft structures and engines, avionics and radio-electronic systems, and cargo ground operations when conducting the pre-flight maintenance on an An-26 aircraft. Structural-time tables and network graphs were developed to map the sequence of actions of maintenance personnel before and after the simulated optimization efforts. The computational analysis using MS Excel and Python language within the Google COLAB platform revealed that pre-flight maintenance is accelerated by 22.42% after optimization with a cargo ground operator compared to the pre-optimization scenario and by 48.81% when compared to the pre-optimization process without a cargo ground operator. The results support the use of refined deterministic CDM models to enhance cooperation among maintenance personnel and reduce the duration of routine aircraft maintenance.

Embracing opportunities and minimizing risks: leveraging decision models for project selection in Southeast Asian countries

Wilson WK YEH — 2025-02-05

In real estate investments in Southeast Asia, decisions worth billions of dollars are usually made without systematic analysis, leading to project failures. This paper presents a novel two-tier matrix method that combines the decision on country-project selection into a model. This model could assist real estate investors to select the right projects in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, which is significantly under-reported. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Sum Method (WSM) to create a matrix model to analyse investment projects. The results are encouraging and indicate that Malaysia is the best country for real estate investment, followed by Thailand and Indonesia respectively. This study also simulates the decision making of very experienced to inexperienced investors. It concluded that the two-tier decision model can safeguard investors from making intuitive decision mistakes and help them to make informed decisions when selecting investment projects in Southeast Asian countries.

Enhancing supply chain resilience in Bangladesh through multimodal transport integration

Abu Musa Md Shariful Islam — 2025-10-28

Bangladesh’s road-dominated freight network is frequently disrupted by congestion, flooding, cyclones, and periodic political unrest, revealing a structural vulnerability in national supply chains. Multimodal integration, linking road, rail, and inland waterways, offers a practical pathway to maintain continuity under such shocks. A purposive panel of 12 senior experts informed a DEMATEL–TOPSIS framework across seven resilience criteria: disruption tolerance (C1), cost efficiency (C2), travel time and speed (C3), flexibility (C4), connectivity and infrastructure availability (C5), environmental impact (C6), and scalability and future readiness (C7). DEMATEL weights indicated a clear hierarchy (C4 = 0.160, C1 = 0.158, C2 = 0.143, C7 = 0.142, C5 = 0.139, C3 = 0.130, C6 = 0.128), with the highest prominence for flexibility (D+R = 1.82) and disruption tolerance (D+R = 1.79). Cause–effect analysis (D–R) identified core drivers: cost efficiency (+0.46), disruption tolerance (+0.27), and connectivity (+0.26), near-neutral contributors (flexibility +0.02; environmental impact +0.01), and downstream effects (travel time −0.45; scalability −0.57). Using these weights in TOPSIS, five integration strategies were ranked: A5 (Road + Rail + Inland Waterway) ≈ 0.97; A3 (Road + Inland Waterway) = 0.812; A2 (Road + Rail) = 0.632; A4 (Rail + Inland Waterway) = 0.293; A1 (Road only) = 0.016. Findings indicate that prioritizing cost efficiency, disruption tolerance, and connectivity, while embedding high flexibility, yields the greatest resilience gains, and that tri-modal integration offers the most robust national pathway beyond road-only vulnerability.

Digital planetary burden index: A framework for situating digital infrastructure within planetary boundaries

Nahed Bahman — 2025-10-16

Digital infrastructure is central to modern life, yet its environmental burden remains underexamined, particularly in the context of planetary boundaries. This study introduces the Digital Planetary Burden Index (DPBI), an integrative framework designed to quantify the ecological impacts of digital systems across five key dimensions: energy consumption, material intensity, water usage, greenhouse gas emissions, and e-waste generation. These indicators are mapped onto the planetary boundaries framework to provide a science-based structure for assessing the sustainability of digital operations. The DPBI is empirically tested through a case study of a Google data center to reveal the often-overlooked planetary stress associated with digital infrastructure. Despite its virtual nature, the data center demonstrates substantial environmental impacts across multiple biophysical domains, underscoring the discrepancy between digital convenience and ecological cost. The DPBI fills a critical gap in sustainability science by linking digital infrastructure with global ecological thresholds. It supports enhanced environmental accountability in the tech sector and provides a transparent, replicable model for evaluating digital sustainability. By situating digital systems within the Earth’s finite limits, the DPBI offers a strategic tool for evidence-based governance and climate-aligned innovation, contributing to more sustainable digital development pathways in the Anthropocene.

Multi-criteria assessment ranking of facade's alternatives using EDAS and CODAS combined MCDM system

Amrita Bhola — 2025-05-27

In the field of building design, selecting the most suitable facade alternative is a complex decision-making task involving numerous conflicting criteria. This research aims to evaluate and rank facade options for public and commercial buildings using a structured decision-support framework. To address this problem, the study applies two well-established Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods—Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) and Combinative Distance-Based Assessment (CODAS). A total of twelve critical evaluation parameters were considered, encompassing economic, structural, environmental and aesthetic factors. The analysis identified the aluminium-glazing facade as the most preferred alternative, followed by sandwich panels, while rockwool plates with decorative plaster performed the worst. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the consistency and robustness of the ranking results. The findings highlight the reliability of the proposed MCDM approach and its practical relevance in guiding sustainable facade selection decisions.

Research on inclination angle design of container loading and unloading platform based on sliding rail type three-dimensional wharf

Taiyang Li — 2024-12-17

At present, the traditional container terminal handling system has many problems, such as high energy consumption, high cost and low efficiency. Therefore, this study drew on the characteristics of "hump" transportation to design a sliding track type, three-dimensional wharf handling system. Meanwhile, considering the design problem of safety dip angle during the loading and unloading operation of the sliding rail terminal, this study constructed the calculation model of the optimal dip angle of the sliding rail operation. This provides a decision support for the improvement of the port handling system. Based on the aforementioned questions, this study first quantified the effects of temperature, humidity and container material. The correction factor for the friction coefficient was obtained. Secondly, combined with the classical mechanics theory, this study developed an optimal calculation model for the inclination of the sliding rail operation under the comprehensive effect of multiple factors. Finally, this study verified the rationality and safety of the optimal dip angle for a specific numerical case of a port. The results show that the safe inclination angle calculated in this case is 21.9°, which meets the requirements of safe operation. The applicability of the above research is verified.